As it turned out, I was wrong. Dead wrong. From the coin toss on, I barely got any of my Super Bowl predictions right, including the one that matters - i.e. the winner. I maintain it was worth it: I usually shank most of my predictions anyway and, had I predicted the Saints would win the big game, I would have probably jinxed them, meaning I would be wrong and angry instead of wrong and happy.
But still, after such a dismal performance, I feel the need to explain myself. I went out of my way to post my predictions on Saturday, hoping I would look like Nostradamus on Monday, but only managed to looked like an ass. Hell, my cousin's girlfriend came over for the game and, even though she only knew Bush because he was "the Reggie from Keeping up with the Kardashians", she managed get more picks right than I.
In order to prevent such a pathetic display of foretelling from ever happening again, I went back to my picks to discover where I went wrong. A comprehensive review of my predictions. Here's what I got:
Coin Toss: I said tails, it was heads.
I should have listened the experts saying heads was a lock this year. But then again, those were the same people who said the Colts couldn't lose, so what do they know?
Team to win the Coin Toss: I said Colts, it was the Saints.
In my defense, I did predict that the Saints would call heads.
Team to receive the opening kickoff: Saints.
That one I got right, but only because New Orleans decided to receive it right away, not because the Colts deferred it to the second half. In other words, even though I was right, I was actually wrong.
First penalty: I said holding, it was a false start.
That was a close one. The second penalty was a hold. Plus, how was I supposed to know the Colts O-line would jump early? I really thought they would be accustomed to Peyton's pre-snap monkeying by now.
First team to commit a turnover: Colts.
Another pseudo-right call. The first (and only) turnover of the game was an interception off Manning, but it happened two quarters later than I thought.
First team to call a timeout: I said Saints, it was the Colts.
And I said it would happen early in the second quarter, it happened just before halftime. Way off again. No excuses. Crap.
First team to score: Colts.
And I said it would be on their first possession too. I looked like a genius on that one.
First score: I said touchdown, it was a field goal.
But I don't even regret this pick. That first drive by the Colts had TD written all over it, but the false start penalty and a dropped pass on 3rd down by Garçon killed it.
First endzone celebration: I said flexed biceps followed by a group hug, it was... nothing.
I honestly don't know what happened there. Garçon caught the pass, ran into the enzone wall, then kind of looked like he was about to flex his muscles but settled for a series of individual hugs and high-fives. My friends wouldn't give me the points for that one, but I'm not sure I was really wrong. If anything, that was a push.
First player to score (jersey number): I said over 25.5, it was under.
I was sure it would be a Manning-Clark pass, or maybe a Manning-Wayne or a Manning-Garçon connection. Instead, a penalty and a dropped pass turned the TD into a 38-yard field goal by Stover. Lame. On their next possession, Manning found Garçon in the endzone. Too little, too late.
Yards gained in first TD: over 8.
I said 12 yards, it was a 19-yard pass. Close enough.
Time elapsed before first score: over 4:30 minutes.
And I said not much later than that. It was at the 7:34 mark. Again, close enough.
Total interceptions: I said over 2.5, it happened only once.
Way off on that one. I nailed Manning's interception, but thought Brees would be pressured by that Colts d-line all night. As it turned out, Freeney's injury really hurt them and killed my predictions. I thought the Colts would jump to an early lead (which they did), forcing the Saints to air it out. That's when Freeney and Mathis would kick into that extra gear and force Brees to hurry his throws. Not even close: Brees stayed calm and collected, took over the game and picked the Colts apart.
Total points: under 56.5.
Nailed it. The score was pretty much what I thought it would be, only the other way around.
Total one-handed catches: under 1.5.
Right again, although that was a fairly easy call.
Manning TD passes: under 2.5.
I said he would throw for two, he threw for one and got pretty damn close a couple of other times. The pick was still right, though.
Brees TD passes: under 2.5.
I said two and, again, nailed it. But I also said Brees would be in for a long day, which wasn't the case (unless you count the post-game parties that probably went until dawn, in which case I was right on the money).
More passing yards: I said Brees over Manning, but it went the other way around.
I said Brees would throw for 300 yards (he got 288) and Manning with end the day with a little over 250 (and he passed for 333). Everything was right on track until Manning threw that interception that went back for six. That meant back to back possessions for the Colts and an additional 80 yards or so to Peyton's passing stats. Even though I missed it, I thought I came pretty close on this pick. However, I also said, for no particular reason, that "Brees [wouldn't] be the one smiling in the end", so I feel monumentally stupid here.
More rushing yards: I said Pierre Thomas over Joseph Addai and, again, it went the other way.
I also said I would have more rushing yards than Addai, who ran 7 times for 60 yards in the first half alone. Thomas, on the other hand, finished the night with 30 yards on 9 carries. Duh!
Dwight Freeney sacks + tackles for loss: under 1.5.
That dude is a beast alright. He managed to sack Brees (with and arm tackle!) once before his ankle called it a day. I was right on my pick, but I must admit he did more than I thought he would.
Last team to score: Saints.
I was right. But, sadly, the last score was the interception return that decided the game and I wrote that "the last score wouldn't matter", which removes any merit whatsoever from my pick. The lesson, as always: if you want to look smart, keep your mouth shut.
Time remaining at last score: over 1:30 minutes.
Again, right and wrong. I said the game would be over way before the last score.
MVP: I said Manning.
Who else? Well, what about Brees?
Time left when gatorade shower happens: under 45 seconds.
Right. And yes, I was also right when I said they didn't have to wait that long. But I made that call thinking the Saints would have lost by then, so I can't take any credit for this. If anything, the fact that the game was already pretty much decided against the Colts only makes it worse.
Color of the Gatorade: I said Clear, it was Orange.
Again, I made that pick thinking the Colts would win. Had I known New Orleans would be the one pouring its Gatorade around, I would have chosen a more cheerful color.
Super Bowl Champs: I said the Colts (and I despise the Colts - I actually feel ashamed).
And I said they would cover the spread. Ugh. But I'm sure happy I was wrong on that one.
Times Kim Kardashian is shown: I said over 2.5, it was under.
I said it would be at least twice that much, but I only saw he once. I blame Bush's lackluster performance for this one.
Times Archie Manning is shown: I said over 5.5, it was under (1, in fact).
I decided to bump the line from 2.5 to 5.5 and I still took the over. How dumb was that?
More times shown: Eli Manning over Khloe and Kourtney Kardashian.
Nailed it. However, it was just because I didn't see Khloe and Kourtney at all. Contrary to my expectations, the Kardashians tied the Mannings with one appearance a piece.
Times Hurricane Katrina is mentioned: I said over 4.5.
Not even once, unless you count the pregame shows.
More times mentioned: I said N. Orleans and Katrina over P. Garçon and Haiti.
A tie, nil-nil. I'm now wondering if the broadcast in English to Brazil included the original commentators or if ESPN International had some of its own people to do it. I can't believe how wrong I was in the celebrity/parallel story department.
Kim Kardashian's attire: I said generic Saints shirt, she was wearing a jacket and a black shirt.
And it wasn't tiny. My cousin's girlfriend, the Kardashian expert, nailed it. She said the Super Bowl transcends sports, that it is a place to see and be seen, so there was no chance Kim would be wearing any NFL merchandise. I should have listened.
Bigger total: Kim's measurements (34-26-39) over Bush's running and receiving yards.
Bush didn't have a great game. A great victory for Kim's perfect ass.
Number of 'Who Dat' signs shown in audience: over 9.5.
I only saw 2. I totally forgot the audience in a Super Bowl is not made of your average football fans and that most of the people there couldn't care less about the actual game. Still, the two signs I saw were pretty lame, so I got something right.
Number of times TV guys will make the case for Manning as the best QB ever: over 2.5.
With an awful throw that cost his team a championship, Manning went from clutch-QB making-a-run-at-history back to great-player-that-can't-deliver-when-it-counts. Awesome!
End result: 15 of 35. And a few of those 15 were actually wrong predictions that somehow ended up being right. Ouch.
I suppose what I thought would happen did happen, only the roles were reversed. I knew both quarterbacks would have good games, but I figured Brees would have to play from behind in the 4th quarter and eventually toss the interception that would ice the game, just like Manning did. And I thought Manning would be in charge the entire time, just like Brees was. It was an honest mistake, could happen to anyone. And I'm glad I was wrong, I really wanted New Orleans to win it.
In any case, you live, you learn. I'll do better in the World Cup, I promise.
